Colin Plamondon

You call that a position?

Profitable Progress is Boring

The best most profitable progress is without fail, boring. 

Whenever's something's in the labs and there's a video of it, it's whiz-bang. A monkey controlling a computer... with its mind! Cool! You can imagine, though, that in reality that would mostly be used to send SMS messages in a meeting while zoning out.

There was a great TED video a while back about turning the internet into a Sixth Sense- you wear a necklace around your neck with a projector, and then interact with that projection in real life. Whoa! Cool! Ooh and aah!

The reality of it is a lot more mundane- no one's going to wear a freaking internet projecting necklace. It's hard enough to get someone to buy your stuff, it's a whole other ballgame when your product makes it harder  to get laid. 

Evolutionary imperatives places pretty strict limits on hardware design.

There was another TED video, this one for multitouch- again, oohs and aahs all over the place. The demo was drawing with multiple fingers, resizing images, all the generic touch-screen-that-doesn't-suck demo gestures. That was 2006, and it's now been productized into the iPad. And, truth be told, it's a pretty boring device. Nothing flying around in space, no table of images scattered all over the place, no built-in drawing app with the express purpose of painting with all of your fingers at once. The reality is, organization is good when browsing large amounts of pictures, and it's hard enough to draw with one finger at a time. 

To my right is a Magic Trackpad. It recognizes ten fingers of input in real-time and has completely replaced my use of the mouse. I have software that lets me tie gestures to hotkeys, creating massive potential for customizing the hell out of my work environment. Things flying around? A new multitouch language to replace the keyboard? Conversations taking place in tap-speak?

Nah, I mostly use it for tab navigation. Three fingers to the right to tab right, three to the left to tab left, three up to open a tab, three down to close the tab. It's freaking amazing. I love it! It speeds up browsing like crazy, and I can't imagine going back to a mouse. Years of massive research and development, all so I can manage my tabs in Safari a bit better.

The real products and real businesses occur at 30% of the demo- when you see folks ooh and aah'ing there's always a great business to be had by making that advancement more mundane-- and useful. 

Our business isn't amazing page turning algorithms, gyroscopic 3D book browsing, or breakthrough real time machine-learning book recommendation algorithms. Its taking books that have been digital for 20 years and making them way easier to browse, download, and read. That's it. It's what's lead to our apps being in the Top 10 of Books for a year straight, and having a Top 100 iPad app since the day of launch. 

While competitors made sweet page turning animations, we put together collections to make book browsing easier. Instead of making our own animation, we just used Apple's built-in one. Guess what? Most folks don't care. By focusing on nailing the 30% of demo we've succeeded- and profited.
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Prioritization? A Simple Matter of Resource Allocation

Prioritization? Eh. A lot of company blogs yap on about the 'startup life' or some nonsense.

It's more a matter of resource allocation. 

So many hours, so many opportunities, so many things you can execute on at a time. At any given time there's usually one thing you can be doing that will double revenue or double user growth. There's a lot of things that won't. Anything that doesn't make a large impact isn't much worth doing, so you focus on the big ticket items. 

Now, in the process of constantly focusing on what doubles you next, you'll find some blind spots, sometimes publicly.

Yeah, turns out, you actually do need to thoroughly test releases before pushing them out to hundreds of thousands of people. Yup, you should approve in-app purchases before the app goes live. No, you probably shouldn't have an 'Unlock for $4.99.' button that reads 'Unlock...', because you went a couple characters over at the last minute (...my bad.).

Those are all easy fixes, though. A better pre-release checklist, a more thorough testing before releases.

The bigger thing is strategic- what's the way you double in the next six months? For us, it's never been executing on the plan that took us though the last six months. It's coming up with something that goes in a slightly different direction, with a slightly different product focus. It also has to be a sustainable focus- if you're a private company, if you aren't taking VC, if you're in it to build a lasting business--- well, Red Bull just isn't going to cut it. You need to be able to kick ass on a regular basis.

A plan isn't a plan unless it works in the worst case scenario- I take my most conservative estimate and cut it in half. If we can double with that, we'll be in damned good shape in six months. This means a lot of excel geekery and it means a lot of quick tests to see if the underlying numbers are feasible. But, if those early signs are good, if those small-scale allocations work out, then it's time to go full-throttle. That's when it's time to set the overarching goal and execute.

That's prioritization.

Not a list. Not a set of 'strategic possibilities'. No, it's a a vision, a runthrough in excel, some quick tests, and a full-throttle blast to increasing revenue. Sexy? No. Profitable? Hell yeah.

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Personalization, game mechanics, and moving beyond social.

Have you seen 750words.com? No? It's the perfect example of how personal is a different beast entirely from social
 
Its idea is simple- help people form a habit of daily writing.  Every day you write 750 words, you get an X in the green box. More days in a row = a bigger streak. Bigger streak = more points each day. Missing a day = breaking the streak.
 
Silly? Of course. But it's also effective- by making your success public it encourages you to accomplish your daily writing. After all, when you see a leaderboard of points with your first name and last initial there, you don't want to break the streak. After each completed day you can see some information about that day- like so:
 
 
By showing your name and your picture, it creates a connection that isn't there with a simple username. It's personal.
 
Most website out there are trying to be social. 750words isn't social. There's no messaging, no friending, no geolocation or check-ins or photo tagging or anything. It's you and your writing, but, thanks to Facebook Connect, it feels personal. 750words is almost entirely a personal app- your writing isn't shared, it's about private writing. Yet, by tying into Facebook Connect, this personal application feels personalized.

Are social apps great? Of course! But not everything should be social. I don't want a social Excel, I don't want a social text editor, I don't want a social todo program. What I do, want, however, is a personalized Excel, a personalized todo app, and a personalized text editor.
 
More personal applications need to be personalized. People love seeing their progress, people love finding out more about themselves, and,  more than anything else, people love seeing their name and picture. It's human! And that's why this stuff matters- the internet isn't about technology for technology's sake, it's about  helping people accomplish things.

There's room for more apps to be social, but ALL apps can stand to be more personal.

 

 

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Apple Care's a ripoff, just call State Farm.

For some reason people don't call insurance companies to insure their expensive electronic stuff. As it happens, insurance companies are good at this stuff!

It costs me $42/year to insure a 13" Macbook Pro, an iPhone 3GS, and a travel scanner. That includes if I drop my laptop, if a guitar head falls directly on the harddrive (...), or if it's stolen on the subte. Anything- it's real honest to god insurance, not insurance, as long as nothing actually goes wrong'. 

The best part is how easy it is- just call the local branch to get a contact, at which point you'll be able to email back and forth for everything, with the annual payment being withdrawn directly out of your checking account.

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"You call that a position?"

My favorite anecdote of all time is one about George Soros, and it's where I got the title of the blog from- 

Q: What else have you learned from Soros?

A: I've learned many things from him, but perhaps most significant is that it's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. The few times that Soros has ever criticized me was when I was really right on the market and didn't maximize the opportunity. 

As an example, shortly after I had started working for Soros, I was bearish on the dollar and put on a large short position against the Deutsche mark. The position had started going in my favor and I felt rather proud of myself. Soros came into my office, and we talked about the trade.

'How big a position do you have?' he asked.
'One billion dollars,' I answered.
'You call that a position?' he said dismissingly. He encouraged me to double my position. I did, and the trade went dramatically further in our favor.

Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig. It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage. As far as Soros is concerned, when you're right on something, you can't own enough.

Although I was not at Soros Management at the time, I've heard that prior to the Plaza Accord meeting in the fall of 1985, other traders in the office had been piggybacking George and hence were long the yen going into the meeting. When the yen opened 800 points higher on Monday morning, these traders couldn't believe the size of their gains and anxiously started taking profits. Supposedly, George came bolting out of the door, directing the other traders to stop selling the yen, telling them that he would assume their position. While these other traders were congratulating themselves for having taken the biggest profit in their lives, Soros was looking at the big picture: The government has just told him that the dollar was going to go down the next year, so why shouldn't he be a pig and buy more?

Soros is also the best loss taker I've ever seen. He doesn't care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn't work he's confident enough about his ability to win on other trades that he can easily walk away from the position. There are a lot of shoes on the shelf; wear only the ones that fit. If you're extremely confident, taking a loss doesn't bother you."

It takes courage to be a pig.
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Personal blogging is a good thing.

I've been blogging over on Spreadsong.com for a while, and it's an awkward mix. Every once in a while I'd have an idea for a post I wanted to write, but it wouldn't quite be something that's appropriate for our company blog. In fact, a bunch of the posts I did on our company site would qualify under that banner. This really goes to a fundamental question that now exists- what exactly the fuck is an 'online presence'?

Twitter's cool, Facebook rocks, blogging is a great way to get ideas out, get feedback, and meet new people.

But how does it all tie together?

Don't get me wrong- Posterous is great! I love it- I'm just firing off an email in Mail and, what do you know, it shows up for the world to see. That's pretty badass- it removes the barrier to blogging, and it makes it more natural. You write emails to friends. You write blogs to share things with the world. But, if you're sending an email to post@posterous.com, it's just like sending an email to a friend!

At the end of the day there's no good way to pull together all these various aspects of who you are. Facebook is for friends who I'd hit up to grab drinks whenever I'm in town. Twitter's for whoever the hell clicks follow. Sites like Posterous and Tumblr are for sharing ideas with the internets. Flickr's for sharing pictures. Youtube's for sharing video. But, if you just want a homepage that ties all this together, what's the real answer? It's beyond retarded that we have to use so many services for this. Facebook is fully integrated, but, by being focused on friends, it sucks for sharing stuff broadly.

Look at http://busterbenson.com - that guy has it down pat. THAT is what every person should be able to have, online. But, to do that, you have to build your own webapp, build charts on the fly with jquery, plug into a half dozen apis, dance the macarena, and then push to Heroku. It's nonsensical- and it's a market opportunity. 

This is my longwinded way of starting a personal blog ;)

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